[MCOH-EH] Warning-False Positives in Low Incidence Populations

[Fung, Fred]

In the wake of delta variant and re-infection due to potentially more mutant strains, the “incidence” of COVID may change … https://www.washington.edu/news/2021/07/26/covid-19-true-prevalence/     and for asymptomatic healthcare workers not vaccinated, there is potential liability for hospitals and employers …

The practical question remains: To test or not to test?

Fred Fung, MD, JD, Esq.
VP Medical Management/Fairfax Zenith

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Subject: [MCOH-EH] Warning-False Positives in Low Incidence Populations

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Testing asymptomatic individuals, who by the very fact that they are not symptomatic, constitute a low incidence population is risky and in my opinion harmful.   The lower the incidence of the disease in the population, the higher the number of false positives.  This is a statistical law, and is why smart physicians always try to test individuals how have a high likelihood of having the illness they are testing for.  For example, in the case of COVID fever, cough, loss of sense of smell or documented exposure
The following article shows that in a population where incidence is 1%, the percentage of false positives is 40%,
False Positives in PCR Tests for COVID-19 - ICD10monitor<https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-positives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19>


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False Positives in PCR Tests for COVID-19 - ICD10monitor

Andrew N. Cohen, PhD

The prevalence of misinformation coming from the most trusted form of coronavirus test may be more significant t...



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